Kurtenbach: The SF Giants’ offseason strategy? Crafting an illusion of progress
Let’s be clear: from the very start of the offseason for the Giants, I made it abundantly clear that you shouldn't take anything at face value until you actually see a jersey being worn over a collared shirt.
Now, as we sit here waiting for the Giants to secure a player who truly deserves a major press conference this winter, it's time for me to reiterate that stance with a twist.
Don’t place your trust in the Giants until you witness a jersey being donned over a collared shirt.
Could that moment arrive in the final days leading up to spring training? Maybe. Or maybe it won’t.
In the meantime, it appears the Giants are merely spinning their wheels, engaging in a series of underwhelming transactions, and hoping that the quantity of moves will somehow be mistaken for genuine ambition.
But let’s be real — it isn’t.
The most recent signing of Luis Arraez is being heralded by some as a return to the glory days of “Giants Baseball.” However, it’s actually much less impressive: it caters to diehard fans who long for the nostalgia of 2012.
This move seems crafted to distract us with outdated statistics like batting average while diverting our attention away from the analytical gaps that plague the rest of the team’s offense. It asks us to overlook the evolution of baseball over the last decade and the undeniable shifts in how the game is played today.
Moreover, it also encourages us to ignore the broader context of the Giants' entire lineup.
The Giants will assert that this signing of Arraez is aimed at reducing strikeouts, promoting a style of play where batters put the ball in play, and maintaining offensive momentum. But if that were genuinely the case, how do you explain the acquisition of Harrison Bader, a centerfielder known for his slick fielding yet who struck out nearly 30 percent of the time last year — placing him in the bottom 22 percent of all players? Or consider Rafael Devers with his 32 percent whiff rate, or past signings like Willy Adames and Matt Chapman, who also struggled with strikeouts?
It seems that while Arraez rarely swings and misses, boasting a mere 5 percent whiff rate, he alone cannot mask the deficiencies that the entire team faces.
Some argue that the former batting champion is meant to "set the table" for the lineup. Yet, as we enter 2026, it feels more like he’s using plastic utensils.
The fixation on batting average belongs to a bygone era when we lacked tools like Statcast to truly understand the dynamics of what happens when the bat connects with the ball.
In the world of baseball today, the focus should be on offensive power, speed, and overall effectiveness. Unfortunately, Arraez doesn’t bring any of those crucial elements to the table.
Last season, he posted a batting average of .292, which marked a career low, yet even that figure is deceptive. His batting average of .289 on balls in play dropped significantly — 34 points compared to the previous year and 73 points since 2023.
He’s effectively a one-dimensional player, and that dimension is currently in decline. In fact, Arraez finished in the bottom 1st percentile for both barrel rate (1.1 percent) and hard-hit rate (16.7 percent) across Major League Baseball. When he makes contact, it’s akin to hitting the ball with a soggy piece of paper. His average exit velocity of 86 miles per hour is less than that of a modern slider, making him predictable to defenses.
Arraez is primarily a slap hitter — a style that can work if you’re part of a team like the Milwaukee Brewers, who pair such hitters with speedy players capable of stealing bases and excelling defensively.
However, Arraez lacks that extra speed, residing in the 25th percentile for sprint speed, and his defensive skills leave much to be desired.
While he may find himself on base occasionally — despite a modest 5 percent walk rate leading to an underwhelming .327 on-base percentage — he tends to clog the bases rather than facilitate scoring chances.
When positioned in the field, he has a knack for allowing errors that can lead to additional runners reaching base.
Indeed, he recorded nine more hits than Shohei Ohtani last year — with a league-leading total of 181 hits. However, he fell short with 182 fewer total bases than Ohtani, resulting in just 245 total bases, ranking him 68th overall in baseball.
The objective is to score runs, not merely accumulate hits. Unfortunately, Arraez neither drives in runs nor scores them effectively.
This scenario leaves the Giants grappling with a challenging lineup construction puzzle that lacks a straightforward solution.
Scenario A: You could place him at the top of the order, where he might get on base with a weak single. He then becomes a stationary runner, waiting for the more powerful hitters in positions 2, 3, and 4 to bring him home. But this only magnifies the frustrations caused by the strikeouts of Adames, Devers, and Chapman.
Scenario B: Alternatively, you could slot him towards the bottom of the lineup, relying on the lower-tier hitters — Patrick Bailey being a prime example — to drive him in with their power. However, Bailey isn’t exactly known for his home runs.
Ultimately, the Giants seem less focused on building a team capable of scoring runs and more invested in creating an appearance that they are indeed making an effort.
At least this deal only spans one year.
So does bringing Arraez onboard actually make the Giants more competitive? The statistics suggest otherwise, and in the realm of baseball, statistics reign supreme.
They are merely purchasing a facade of plausible deniability. They can point to Arraez’s past accolades while claiming, "We did something!" They hope fans will focus on the impressive stats on the back of his baseball card rather than the actual, relevant data. They seem to believe that one player — along with his singular skill — can somehow compensate for the deficiencies of an entire lineup.
Meanwhile, the starting rotation appears to be lacking one or two key pitchers, and the bullpen looks like an uncertain gamble.
The Giants don't seem to be aiming to win the division or challenge the Dodgers; they are merely trying to keep pace with the smaller-market Reds.
Yet, at least for those nostalgic fans yearning for a return to a bygone era of play, there’s a sense that their desires are being acknowledged.
